It is 2020.
You get Covid, things go badly, and you end up in a coma.
You wake up ten years later, in 2030.
You are fine. A little confused, but fine.
On the way home from the hospital, you start looking outside the car window.
Something feels strange.
Every billboard looks more or less the same.
Same clean fonts. Same smooth gradients. Same strangely perfect people. Same slightly empty feeling.
At first you assume they all belong to the same company.
Then you look closer.
They don’t.
One is selling insurance. One is a bank. One is a clothing company. One is apparently selling yogurt.
It looks like every company in the world hired the same designer.
Whatever.
You never paid much attention to billboards anyway.
The next morning you go back to work.
You join your first meeting in ten years and notice a strange participant in the call. It has no camera and some generic name like “Meeting Notes”.
You ask what it is.
Someone explains that it is an AI that listens to the entire meeting, writes down everything that was said, extracts the important points and sends everyone a summary.
You think this is amazing.
No more taking notes.
Then you remember that nobody ever read the meeting notes anyway.
Still, pretty cool.
That evening you need to call your bank.
You hate calling your bank.
Before the coma, calling the bank meant listening to terrible music for thirty minutes before finally reaching someone who would misunderstand the question and give you an answer that was not particularly useful.
But things have improved.
The bank answers immediately.
An AI agent asks what you need.
You explain the problem.
It understands you perfectly.
Three seconds later it gives you a completely useless answer.
You have to admit something.
This is progress.
In 2020 it took thirty minutes to get a useless answer.
Now you can get one instantly.
After dinner, you finally remember something important.
Your investments.
Before the coma you had bought shares in most of the large American technology companies.
You open your portfolio.
Apple is worth around $1.9 trillion. Back in 2020, when you bought it, it was worth around $1.3 trillion. Up 50 percent.
Microsoft is worth around $1.8 trillion. Back then it was worth around $1.2 trillion. Up 50 percent.
Google is worth around $1.4 trillion. It was worth around $920 billion. Up 50 percent.
Amazon is worth around $1.4 trillion. It was worth around $920 billion. Up 50 percent.
Facebook, now Meta, is worth around $900 billion. Back in 2020 it was worth around $600 billion. Up 50 percent.
Tesla is worth around $110 billion. It was worth around $75 billion. Up 50 percent.
Nvidia is worth around $215 billion. Back in 2020 it was worth around $145 billion. Up 50 percent.
Not bad.
You went into a coma for ten years and somehow managed to make 50 percent doing absolutely nothing.
Then you start reading about the companies that appeared while you were gone.
Two names keep coming up.
OpenAI and Anthropic.
You have never heard of either of them.
In 2030, both companies are worth around $150 billion.
Pretty impressive for companies that spend a good chunk of their revenue just running the product.
You look at the competition.
You look at the compute bill.
$150 billion seems expensive enough.
You don’t invest.
And so you go to bed.
Until now, we have been looking at 2030 through the eyes of someone from 2020.
Let’s look at exactly the same future through the eyes of someone living in 2026.
Things suddenly look very different.
In our story, Nvidia is worth around $215 billion. Today it is worth around $5.5 trillion. Down 96%.
And Nvidia is not alone.
In our story, Apple is worth around $1.9 trillion. Today it is worth around $4.8 trillion. Down 60%.
Microsoft is worth around $1.8 trillion. Today it is around $3.8 trillion. Down 53%.
Google is worth around $1.4 trillion. Today it is around $4.1 trillion. Down 66%.
Amazon is worth around $1.4 trillion. Today it is around $2.7 trillion. Down 48%.
Meta is worth around $900 billion. Today it is around $1.9 trillion. Down 53%.
Tesla is worth around $110 billion. Today it is around $1.4 trillion. Down 92%.
OpenAI is worth $150 billion. Today it is seeking a valuation of around $1.4 trillion. Down 89%.
Anthropic is worth $150 billion. Today it is targeting a valuation above $2 trillion. Down 92%.
And after all of that, our guy from 2020 would open his portfolio and think:
Nice.
Up 50 percent.
That is the 90% case.